Race Rankings
The chart below shows our predictions for the 2010 gubernatorial contests as of Labor Day 2009. A brief key: states in red are currently held by Republicans, blue by Democrats. An * indicates a 2009 contest while a # indicates the incumbent is an “Accidental Governor” who replaced a governor who left office before his or her term was completed. BOLD indicates a party switch if current forecast holds true on election day.
At this point Republicans look to be ahead in six states currently held by Democrats (NJ, VA, OK, TN, WY, and KS). Democrats look to have an advantage in four (CA , HI, NV and VT). Four of the five states currently rated as pure Toss-ups are currently held by the GOP. Democratic strategists should be worried about the many incumbents in the LEAN DEM category, as the party shouldn’t be worried about races in Massachusetts, New York and Illinois, but poll numbers show incumbents in dangerous territory going into re-election season.
| Safe Dem | Likely Dem | Lean Dem | Toss-Up | Lean GOP | Likely GOP | Safe GOP |
| New Jersey* | ||||||
| Virginia* | ||||||
| Arkansas | Maine | California | Arizona# | Alabama | Alaska# | Idaho |
| Maryland | New Mexico | Colorado | Florida | Georgia | Connecticut | Kansas |
| New Hampshire | Oregon | Hawai’i | Michigan | Oklahoma | Tennessee | Nebraska |
| Vermont | Illinois# | Minnesota | S. Carolina | Wyoming | S. Dakota | |
| Iowa | Rhode Island | Texas | Utah# | |||
| Massachusetts | ||||||
| New York# | ||||||
| Nevada | ||||||
| Ohio | ||||||
| Pennsylvania | ||||||
| Wisconsin | ||||||
Individual analysis of each state will be posted in the coming days:
-
Wed Sept 9: The Big Picture
-
Thur Sept 10: The Pick-Up Opportunities (Part 1)
-
Fri Sept 11: The Pick-Up Opportunities (Part 2)
-
Mon Sept 14: The Toss-Ups
-
Tues Sept 15: The Races to Watch (Part 1)
-
Wed Sept 16: The Races to Watch (Part 2)
-
Thur Sept 17: The Potential Long-Shots
-
Thur Sept 17: The Safe Chairs
