The State Houses – What’s At Stake in 2010

Thirty-nine states will be electing a governor during the 2009-2010 election cycle. Of these, eighteen races will not include an incumbent and four incumbents who will be running were not elected to their current position. The recession and huge budget deficits threaten to undercut the power of incumbency for governors running for reelection.

The Current Line-Up

800px-governors_by_party

Pennsylvania

pennsylvania-stampIncumbent: Tom Corbett (R)

Primary Election: May 18, 2010
General Election: November 2, 2010

STATUS: Open Seat
RATING: Lean Democratic

RECENT ELECTION RETURNS:
2002 Result: Rendell wins 53%-44%.
2006 Result:
Rendell wins 60%-40%.

POLITICAL TRIVIA:

The two previous two-term Democratic Governors of Pennsylvania (Milton Shapp and Robert P. Casey) were replaced in Harrisburg by a Republican. In fact, the last (and only) time the Democrats controlled the Pennsylvania Governor’s Mansion for more than eight years was before the Civil War (1839-1848).

Pennsylvania Gubernatorial Race: Headlines

Democrats:
Tom Knox Web Site twitter
Joe Hoeffel             Web Site facebook
Don Onorato Web Site
Jack Wagner           Web Site
Anthony Williams

Republicans:
Tom Corbett
Jim Gerlach

Sam Rohrer
Pat Meehan

Local Blogs:
pa2010.com
Pennsylvania Ave (The Morning Call’s political blog)

PollWatch:
Mercyhurst: Corbett trails a ‘generic Dem’ 40-29% (10/3/13)
Franklin & Marshall: Only one if five voters believe Corbett deserves re-election (8/28/13)
Harper Polling: Only 24% think Corbett deserves re-election (7/5/13)
Franklin & Marshall: Only one in four voters believe Corbett deserves re-election (5/8/13)
Quinnipiac: Leading Dems top Corbett in gov race; Dem primary is a race between Schwartz and Sestak (4/29/13)
Quinnipiac: Gov. Corbett stuck in a slump, Sestak runs best among possible Dem. challengers (3/13/13)
Public Policy Polling: Corbett in dire shape for re-election, trails all five potential Dem challengers (3/12/13)
Franklin & Marshall: Corbett’s job approval numbers sink to lowest ever, only 26% approve (2/7/13)
Quinnipiac: Corbett in the hole at half-time, voters disapprove of job performance by 42-36% (1/29/13)
Public Policy Polling: Voters support Corbett on NCAA lawsuit, but down on him overall (1/7/13)
Rasmussen: Corbett’s job approval numbers sink, 42-48% (10/26/12)
Rasmussen: Corbett job approval numbers move up, 49-47% (10/11/12)
Muhlenberg/Morning Call: Corbett’s job approval numbers remain low, 30-46% (9/18/12)
Franklin & Marshall: Corbett job approval rating remains low 32-39% (6/6/12)
Quinnipiac: Corbett’s approval rating tanks; voters oppose cuts to state schools, ultrasound bill (3/15/12)
Quinnipiac: Corbett job approval net positive, 47-34% (12/9/11)
Public Policy Polling: Corbett’s job approval in negative territory, 37-43% (11/29/11)
Quinnipiac: Shift by women lifts Corbett’s approval numbers to 44-36% approval (8/3/11)
Public Policy Polling: PA against same-sex marriage, Corbett unpopular – only 35% approve of job performance (7/14/11)
Quinnipiac: PA residents split over Corbett’s job performance; 39-38% approve (6/14/11)
Quinnipiac: Big jump in disapproval of Corbett’s job performance; Dislike his budget proposals (4/27/11)
Public Policy Polling: Onorato would win rematch with Corbett (4/13/11)
Rasmussen: Corbett holds comfortable lead over Onorato, 52-43% (10/28/10)
Quinnipiac: Onorato narrows gap, now trails Corbett 49-44% (10/22/10)
Public Policy Polling: Onorato closes gap, trails Corbett 48-46% (10/20/10)
Muhlenberg Coll/Morning Call: Onorato gaining in tracking poll, now trails 47-40% (10/19/10)
Muhlenberg Coll/Morning Call: Corbett up double-digits, 47-37% (10/4/10)
Rasmussen: Corbett up by a dozen, Corbett 53%, Onorato 41% (9/29/10)
Franklin & Marshall: Corbett up by four among likely voters, Corbett 36%, Onorato 32% (9/29/10)
Suffolk U: Corbett opens 7-point lead, 47-40% (9/27/10)
Muhlenberg College: Corbett with 9-point lead, up 46-37% (9/25/10)
Quinnipiac: Corbett winning indy voters, leads Onorato 54-39% (9/21/10)
Critical Insights/Times-Leader: Corbett with slight lead over Onorato, 38-37% (9/16/10)
Rasmussen: Corbett still up by ten, 49-39% (9/13/10)
Franklin & Marshall: Corbett leads by eleven among likely voters, 38-27% (8/26/10)
PPP: Corbett still holds double-digit lead, 48-35 (8/18/10)
Rasmussen: Corbett maintains lead, 48-38 (8/16/10)
Rasmussen: Corbett holds 10-pt lead, 48-38 (7/14/10)
Quinnipiac: Corbett holds lead, 44-37, independents the key (7/13/10)
Rasmussen: Corbett’s lead narrows slightly to 49-39 (6/29/10)
PPP: Corbett holds sizable lead, 45-35 (6/21/10)
Rasmussen: Corbett maintains lead, 49-33 (6/2/10)
Rasmussen: Corbett starts general election with double-digit lead, 49-36 (5/19/10)
Quinnipiac: Onorato with huge lead on primary eve (5/17/10)
Quinnipiac: Corbett holds slight edge in November matchups (5/13/10)
Rasmussen: Dem primary – Onorato 34, Williams 17, Wagner 17, Hoeffel 9 (5/6/10)
Quinnipiac: Onorato pulling away from Dem field, still 37% undecided (5/4/10)
Rasmussen: Corbett still leading, Onorato closes gap (4/15/10)
Susquehanna (R): Corbett cruising; Onorato pulling ahead of Dem field (4/14/10)
Quinnipiac: Corbett has double-digit leads over all Dems (4/8/10)
Quinnipiac: Democratic candidates virtually invisible to voters, nearly half still undecided (4/7/10)
Public Policy Polling (D): Corbett has comfortable leads (4/7/10)
Franklin & Marshall: Democratic race still wide open (3/24/10)
Rasmussen: Corbett leads all three Democrats (3/19/10)
Susquehanna (R): Corbett leads both Wagner and Onorato by double digits (3/12/10)
DailyKos/Research 2000: Corbett leads all Dems in race (3/10/10)
Quinnipiac: Corbett way up in GOP contest, leads over Dems (3/3/10)
Franklin & Marshall: 72% undecided in Dem race, Corbett leads GOP (2/24/10)
Wilson Research (GOP): Gerlach internal poll shows him with “profile” to beat Corbett (pdf) (7/16/09)
Quinnipiac: Corbett leading GOP, Democrat race a three-way contest (7/21/09)
Knox internal poll hints at wide open democratic primary (6/15/09) (pdf)

State Resources:
Pennsylvania Board of Commissions, Elections and Legislation