The State Houses – What’s At Stake in 2010

Thirty-nine states will be electing a governor during the 2009-2010 election cycle. Of these, eighteen races will not include an incumbent and four incumbents who will be running were not elected to their current position. The recession and huge budget deficits threaten to undercut the power of incumbency for governors running for reelection.

The Current Line-Up

800px-governors_by_party

Hawai’i

hawaii-stampIncumbent: Neil Abercrombie (D)

Primary Election: September 18, 2010

General Election: November 2, 2010

STATUS: OPEN SEAT

RATING: Lean Democratic Pickup

RECENT ELECTION RESULTS:

2002 Result: Lingle wins 52%-47%.

2006 Result: Lingle wins 63%-35%.

Hawai’i Gubernatorial Race: Headlines

Democrats:

Neil Abercrombie Web Site twitter YouTube
Mufi Hannemann Web Site twitter YouTube

Republicans:

Duke Aiona Web Site facebook

John Carroll

StateHouseRock Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRATIC TAKEOVER

5) Hawai’i - Term-limited Linda Lingle’s tenure as Hawai’i's first Republican governor is coming to an end without her leaving a vibrant state party in her wake. Lingle’s personal popularity simply didn’t transfer to the state GOP during her time in office. As a result, the Aloha State represents one of the Democrats’ best 2010 pick-up opportunities.

Beyond the Democratic Party’s strength in the state, I can’t imagine the increased exposure of “The Birthers” has been well-received among Hawaiians as they celebrate the 50th anniversary as America’s 5oth state. The national GOP’s increasingly xenophobic nature can’t play well in a state as demographically diverse as Hawai’i.

Lingle’s Lt. Governor James “Duke” Aiona will probably carry the Republican banner in the gubernatorial contest. It looks like the real action will occur in the Democratic primary where Rep. Neil Abercrombie will campaign against Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann. This represents a rematch of the 1986 primary where Abercrombie first won the US House seat he currently holds. Hannemann has dashed ahead in the fundraising race, aided by the Hawai’i State Spending Commission’s ruling that prohibited Abercrombie from transfering campaign funds from his federal accounts for the gubernatorial contest.

~SHR, Sept 9, 2009

State Resources:

Hawaii Board of Elections

Local Media/Blogs:
Hawaii Elections 2010

Pollwatch:
Hawai’i Poll/Honolulu Star-Advertiser: Abercrombie’s job approval rating stands at 50% (5/15/11)
DKos/Public Policy Polling: Governor’s race a toss-up, Abercrombie 49%, Aiona 47% (10/3/10)
Honolulu Civil Beat/Merriman River: Abercrombie on top, Hannemann in trouble (9/11/10)
Hawai’i Poll: Aiona trails both Dems by double digits (8/24/10)
Rasmussen: Abercrombie, Hannemann both have strong leads over Aiona (6/24/10)
Hawai’i Poll/Honolulu Advertiser: Abercrombrie 36, Hannemann 32, Don’t Know 21, GOP 11 (4/28/10)
Rasmussen: Both Dems have huge leads over GOP’s Aiona (3/24/10)
Research 2000/DailyKos: Dems lead in potential general election matchups (6/19/09)