Archive for Redistricting
Guber Quick Hits, 2/3/11
Posted by: | CommentsCalifornia: Gov. Jerry Brown’s strategists are considering pursuing holding his proposed special election to extend taxes exclusively by mail. It’s not clear whether ‘going postal’ would help or hurt the chances of winning.
Florida: Politico writes about Gov. Rick Scott’s desire to muzzle the media.
Iowa: Of the nine finalists nominated to fill the three Supreme Court vacancies, one donated to Gov. Terry Branstad’s winning campaign while another made a contribution to Chet Culver.
New Jersey: Gov. Chris Christie, the darling of small government tea partiers, has signed two bills that “increase his dominion” over recession-ravaged Atlantic City.
Texas: Gov. Rick Perry is delivering the keynote address at next week’s CPAC gathering.
Texas II: Could the budget hole be so deep that it threatens funding for high school football?
Virginia: Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli has requested an expedited Supreme Court review of Virginia’s challenge to the federal health care law. Since most legal observers expect a denial from the high court, you have to wonder about Cuccinelli’s motivation. Keeping his name in the headlines on this issue positions him as the GOP front-runner for the 2013 gubernatorial race.
Wisconsin: Gov. Scott Walker declared a state of emergency due to the blizzard yesterday, urging motorists to stay off the roads and closed state offices to the public, but then told state workers they had to come to work or take a vacation day.
And from beyond the StateHouses:
Are we heading for a fourth wave election? One prognosticator thinks the Dems may be able to catch a wave in 2012.
With the Census Bureau reporting that racial minorities accounted for 85% of the nation’s population growth over the past decade, Latino activists expect “a minimum of nine additional Latino-majority House seats” when redistricting is said and done.
Is there room for two Mormons in the 2012 GOP presidential primary?
Draw the Lines: When a Delegation Shrinks
Posted by: | CommentsRep. Peter King, the dean of the Empire State Republican congressional delegation (actually the only member of the GOP caucus prior to the November elections), shared some political insights with his newly-elected colleagues about the ways of Washington. But, according to the New York Times, it’s Albany and the intrigue in the state capital that these new congress-critters need to keep an eye on.
Mr. King, a Republican from Long Island, talked to them about the importance of sticking together and about difficult votes ahead.
But then he turned to a subject that the rookies in the room had thought little about: redistricting. In a few weeks, lawmakers in Albany will begin talks on how to redraw New York’s Congressional map and eliminate two districts.
It was clear that these fresh-faced politicians were not prepared for what may be the ultimate insiders’ game.
“I told them to get ready,” Mr. King said, recalling the meeting. “That process turns friend against friend.”
The redistricting battle is looming as an early test of the anti-establishment sentiment that carried many novice politicians to victory in the 112th Congress. While more senior House members are already working their ties in statehouses back home to protect their districts, many freshmen are just waking up to what is coming.
Are they really? Is their knowledge about civics so limited that they don’t understand what the Census does every decade?
A Bigger House?
Posted by: | CommentsThe prevailing anti-government, Tea Party-fueled ‘take back America’ political climate might make arguing for an expansion of the US House of Representatives a political non-starter, especially among conservatives. But here’s conservative syndicated columnist Jeff Jacoby making the argument (and citing the Founding Fathers) that the current system is inherently undemocratic.
According to the Census Bureau, there are now 710,767 Americans in the average congressional district. But with every state constitutionally entitled to at least one House seat, and with the membership of the House frozen at 435,districts can deviate widely from the average. Wyoming’s single US representative has just 568,000 constituents; the member from neighboring South Dakota has 820,000. That means a vote cast in Wyoming has nearly 1.5 times the impact of a South Dakotan’s vote.
An even more egregious violation of the “one man, one vote’’ principle is the inequality between Rhode Island’s two congressional districts, with 528,000 voters each, and Montana’s lone district, with 994,000. So great is that disparity, observes Scott Scharpen, the founder of an organization called Apportionment.US, that it takes 188 voters in Montana to equal 100 voters in Rhode Island.
It’s more than the increasing inequality that occurs every decade. The static size of Congress also contributes to the alienation between Representatives and the citizenry.
The larger districts grow, the less representative lawmakers become. Since 1910, the average number of constituents per House member has climbed from 210,000 to more than 710,000. Over the same span, members of Congress have grown more remote, more undefeatable, more beholden to special interests, and less capable of reflecting the diversity of their districts’ values and views. Smaller, more numerous districts, would be far more democratic, more accessible to new blood and new ideas, and more difficult to gerrymander.
Congress worked better when the size of the House was elastic. The Framers reckoned congressional districts should contain about 30,000 constituents; districts comprising nearly three-quarters of a million would have struck them as ludicrous.
Draw the Lines: Will Washington’s New 10th be Another King County seat?
Posted by: | CommentsUniversity of Washington geographer and demographer Dick Morrill observes that the ‘surprising historical accident’ that four incumbent Washington House members reside at the edges of their current districts might dictate that the brand-spanking new Tenth Congressional district be carved out of northeastern King County:
So if we look at the area with the largest population with no incumbent representative to protect, we find it is northeastern King County. This area, with almost 2 million people, has only two representatives within its borders, so no one would be squeezed out. Thus a logical alternative for the 10th district is indeed King County, which has almost enough population for district 7 (McDermott, Seattle), 8 (Reichert, Eastside and south King County), and a new 10th (northeastern King).
This would in turn make the 9th (Smith, Tacoma) mainly a Pierce County district, and put Olympia in the 6th (Dicks, Belfair).
There is one caveat. If Jay Inslee opts to run for the open governor’s chair in 2012, the lack of an incumbent in his First District could provide the mapmakers to freedom to make a more radical redraw that would still protect the remaining incumbents.
And the Census Says…
Posted by: | CommentsNo huge surprises in the Census’ reapportionment announcement this winter solstice. Republicans stand to gain electoral votes in 2012 simply by winning where they typically win, while Democrats are hampered by the midterm shellacking and their banishment to the redistricting sidelines in many state capitals.
The real redistricting battles will take place across the Rust Belt – from New York through Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois and Missouri.
Guber Quick Hits, Tues 7/13/10
Posted by: | CommentsCalifornia: MegaBucks Whitman continues her efforts to whitewash her anti-immigrant rhetoric of the GOP primary, adding banner ads on Spanish-language websites as another avenue to connect with the Golden State’s Latino community.
Connecticut: Two court decisions – one federal, one state – were rendered today regarding Connecticut’s new Clean Elections public financing system. In a big blow to Republican Michael Fedele’s campaign against self-financer Tom Foley, the state decision struck down the provision’s “millionaire’s amendment.”
Florida: The last I heard, gluttony was considered one of the seven deadly sins. Regardless of what it means in the afterlife, the RPOF’s binging could have political repercussions in both the US Senate and gubernatorial contests.
Illinois: Pat Quinn’s election effort is haunted by the specter of Rod Blagojevich. The disgraced former governor’s corruption trial couldn’t be happening at a worse time for Quinn as he tries to win the governor’s mansion in his own name. Over the weekend, he signed a pair of ethics reform laws he hopes roots out corruption in Illinois and creates distance between the incumbent and the man he replaced.
Massachusetts: Deval Patrick is tweeting about the Bay State appearing as #5 in CNBC’s rankings of best state for business. It’s the first time a northeastern state has appeared in the media outlets Top 5.
Michigan: In the battle of establishment endorsements, House Speaker Andy Dillon picked up the support of former Detroit Mayor Dennis Archer while his Democratic opponent Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero added two US Congressmen and former guber wannabe state Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith to his stable of endorsers.
Minnesota: For some inexplicable reason, GOP guber wannabe Tom Emmer keeps the “waiters make too much money” storyline going. Over the weekend, he decided to wait tables for a shift and on Wednesday he plans town hall meeting with restaurant servers as the audience.
Minnesota II: With nearly a month to go before the August 10th primary DFL candidates and DFL-leaning groups have spent nearly $2.2 million in television advertising.
Texas: Lone Star state Democrats – who were stung by Tom DeLay’s unorthodox (and possibly illegal) mid-decade redistricting maneuvers – are already crying ‘foul’ over the state GOP’s ‘unprecedented’ changes to the state’s redistricting process for next year.
Guber Quick Hits, Mon 7/12/10
Posted by: | CommentsAlabama: Mike Huckabee has lent his voice to Robert Bentley’s run-off effort, recording a robo-call going out over the campaign’s final weekend.
Florida: It looks like the fight to reform the redistricting process in Florida might end up before the state’s Supreme Court.
New Mexico: Susana Martinez’ campaign spokesman had a really bad day Sunday. He got arrested for DWI early in the morning and was fired as a result before the end of the day. Martinez really had no choice. In campaign ads earlier this summer, Democratic opponent Diane Denish had accused the Ana Dona County DA of cutting deals with DWI offenders.
New York: Republican Rick Lazio is offering to share his tax returns if opponent Andrew Cuomo shows his, too.
Ohio: Following last month’s endorsement by the powerful NRA, Democrat Ted Strickland picked up the support of the Buckeye Firearms Association in his campaign against former US Rep. John Kasich.
Pennsylvania: Democrat Dan Onorato will be calling in one of the party’s biggest weapons, former President Bill Clinton, to campaign on his behalf. Clinton’s presence was credited with helping Dems win the special election to replace the late John Murtha.
South Carolina: Despite a spike in out-of-state donations to Nikki Haley’s gubernatorial campaign after Sarah Palin’s endorsement, the Republican nominee still trails Democrat Vincent Sheheen in the money race.
Guber Quick Hits, TGIF 7/9/10
Posted by: | CommentsConnecticut: Democrat Dannell Malloy quickly praised a Massachusetts federal judge’s ruling that the Defense of Marriage Act was unconstitutional. Will this become an issue in the gubernatorial contests throughout New England?
Connecticut II: Republican Michael Fedele should soon be rolling in publicly-financed campaign dough. Due to receive a public grant of nearly $2.2 million, he proclaims he’s ‘ready to rock‘ in the GOP primary against Tom Foley and Oz Griebel. But Foley has filed a lawsuit to prevent the state from transferring the funds.
Florida: In redistricting news, a Leon County judge struck Amendment 7 from Florida’s November ballot. The Republican-backed amendment had been called a “poison pill” that would’ve undermined the intent of Amendments 5 and 6 which seek to reform the way the Sunshine State draws it’s legislative and congressional districts. Incoming State Senate President Mike Haridopolos responded to the decision by saying if 7 was flawed, it must mean Amendments 5 & 6 are as well and should be removed from the ballot.
Hawaii: Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann picked up the endorsement of one of Hawaii’s largest unions, the United Public Workers.
Massachusetts: Republican Charlie Baker’s gubernatorial campaign now has more money in the bank than either of his major rivals, Deval Patrick and Timothy Cahill, after Cahill spent more than $400K on campaign ads early this summer.
Minnesota: Tom Emmer’s campaign continues getting bashed over his ill-conceived proposal to cut waiters hourly wages.
Nebraska: Democrats are still searching for a gubernatorial candidate.
Texas: All the threads of evidence in the mystery about who provided the funding to get the Green Party certified on the Lone Star ballot point to Rick Perry’s camp. It turns out this might not be the first time Perry has employed this tactic.
Guber Quick Hits, Wed 7/1/10
Posted by: | CommentsAlabama: Dick Morris, the keynote speaker at the GOP Summer Dinner not-so-subtly advocated voting for one candidate over another in the GOP guber primary.
California: It’s the first day of another fiscal year and once again California’s dysfunctional political system has failed to reach agreement on this year’s budget, which has a projected shortfall of $19.1 billion.
Connecticut: Talk about off-message – GOP guber wannabe Tom Foley has been in getting unwanted headlines about a decades-old arrests over road rage incidents. Now he’s got his ex-wife signing an affidavit he never abused her.
Georgia: Insurance Commissioner (and GOP guber wannabe) John Oxendine raised over $800K during the past two months.
New York: David Paterson is swearing off politics at the end of his disastrous partial term as New York’s Accidental Governor.
Ohio: Good news for Democrat Tom Strickland as he seeks reelection. The Buckeye State finished the fiscal year with a $139 million surplus. That’s a headline few governors have been able to celebrate in recent years.
Pennsylvania: Ed Rendell tells Politico that fellow Democrat Dan Onorato is the underdog in the race to replace him.
Texas: The players in next year’s biggest congressional redistricting contest have been cast. Lt. Gov. David Dewhirst has appointed the 11-member Senate Select Committee on Redistricting six months before the legislature convenes so the members can travel the state and get input from Texans on how best to redraw political boundaries.
Guber Quick Hits, Sat 6/26/10
Posted by: | CommentsAlaska: Republican guber wannabe Bill Walker is requesting files for records related to the state’s natural gas pipeline open season, a huge economic issue dominating Alaskan politics. Walker believes Gov. Sean Parnell’s administration should be more transparent about the process, the outcome of which will affect Alaskans for generations to come.
Arizona: Just days after becoming a member of the NRA’s executive committee, GOP guber wannabe Buz Mills was passed over as the gun lobby endorsed incumbent Gov. Jan Brewer for re-election.
California: Big redistricting battle looms this fall, as Golden State voters will be asked to weigh in in two competing redistricting ballot initiatives. One seeks to expand 2008′s Proposition 11 to include congressional redistricting. The other seeks to undo the commission created by Prop 11.
Illinois: Scott Lee Cohen’s 133,000 signatures to get on the ballot as an independent guber wannabe may not be challenged by Pat Quinn or the Democrats, but two cases currently in the courts could kick him off the ballot prior to the September certification of the final ballot by the State Board of Elections.
Kansas: In a preemptive move dismissing a nod he probably had little chance of getting, Democrat Tom Holland has told the state Chamber of Commerce he doesn’t want their support, saying “The priorities and actions of the Kansas Chamber of Commerce have become highly partisan and detrimental to the development of our state’s economy.”
Maine: Independent candidate Eliot Cutler leads the pack of privately finance gubernatorial candidates having raised over $700,000.
New York: Rick Lazio wants the Empire State to say good-bye to Hollywood, or at least Dem plans to expand movie industry tax breaks.
Oregon: Bucking the trend of Attorneys General filing suit against the new health care legislation, the Beaver State’s AG wants to file an amicus brief in favor of the federal government’s position in the healthcare lawsuit.
South Carolina: The SC Chamber of Commerce endorsement of Democrat Vincent Sheheen is providing hope to Palmetto State Dems they might derail Nikki Haley.
Texas: Public Policy Polling shows Kay Bailey Hutchison’s approval dropping from 58% to 37% over the past 16 months. How much of that is due to the beating she took from Rick Perry during their gubernatorial primary contest and how much of that is simply the national wave of disgust at DC politicians is difficult to determine. But if she does change her mind (again) and decide to run for another Senate term, she may be in for a tough campaign.
