Archive for Obama’s Political Capital
Guber Quick Hits, Sat 8/21/10
Posted by: | CommentsCalifornia: At what point does a candidate become overexposed? The Jerry Brown camp has polling numbers saying MegaBucks Whitman’s saturation of the Golden State’s TeeVees has started a backlash among voters.
Florida: Even if Bill McCollum survives this Tuesday’s guber primary slugfest, the RPOF will turn to the general election campaign in a financially distressed state. Their federal campaign finance account which typically funds GOTV efforts, has been drained as the party establishment has poured everything into salvaging McCollum’s candidacy.
Illinois: Accidental Gov. Pat Quinn’s campaign continues to unravel. It’s now parted ways with David Axelrod’s media firm.
Maryland: Trying to have it both ways. Former Gov. Bob Ehrlich has taken to touring the state criticizing over-regulation and government’s role in hindering economic growth but when a questioner points out some of the system he’s complaining about were signed into law by Ehrlich himself, he avoids the query and attacks the questioner.
Massachusetts: Sensing danger in the media’s recent midterm tea leaf reading, the White House is denying that Gov. Deval Patrick’s re-election effort is any sort of bellwhether for Obama’s 2012 campaign.
Oregon: The debate about debates between John Kitzhaber and Chris Dudley continues. The Democrat wants a series of seven encounters while the former NBA Trail Blazer has accepted four – although the four he wants aren’t necessarily the Kitz wants. Round and round it goes as Oregon’s budget hole grows larger.
Pennsylvania: During the Democratic primary Philadelphia-area state senator Anthony Williams set Keystone State fundraising and spending records when a trio of school voucher proponents donated millions to his campaign. When Williams officially endorsed Democratic nominee Dan Onorato, many wondered whether those donors would open their checkbooks once again. It appears they haven’t.
Vermont: Brian Dubie makes it easier for his eventual Democratic opponent to run against the Dubya legacy.
Deval Enters the Lion’s Den
Posted by: | CommentsEmbattled Massachusetts Governor (what incumbent running for re-election isn’t endangered this year of the angry electorate?) Deval Patrick walked into the Right Wing echo chamber by appearing on conservative talk radio host Howie Carr’s Boston’s WRKO radio show.
Patrick, who is heard regularly on the Bay State’s radio airwaves with liberal hosts Jim Braude and Margery Eagan and is facing a close three-way contest in November answered questions on removing toll booths on the Mass Pike and property tax relief, two pet concerns of frequent critic Carr.
Carr also opened with a frequent question he asks on the air and in his column in the Boston Herald: “Where’s my property tax cut?”
Patrick replied, “It’s coming.”
The governor noted he has tried many means to let cities and towns reduce their property tax burdens, including proposing to allow them to put their workers into the state insurance pool, letting them raise their meals and hotel taxes and proposing to give them a portion of the revenues from three casinos he proposed.
“The other tools we got; this one we didn’t,” he said, referring to the Legislature’s rejection of his casino plan.
Patrick, who’s got David Plouffe advising his re-elect effort probably won’t be alone in taking on critics as the campaign unfolds. Politico reports Patrick’s reelection is a top political priority for Team Obama.
the White House is looking to every weapon in its arsenal to help Patrick win a second term.
Patrick has been at the White House at least a half-dozen times in the past year, whether he’s lunching with senior adviser David Axelrod, dropping by the Oval Office for a chat or attending Obama’s first state dinner.
The Massachusetts governor is the only Democrat besides Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and party-switching Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) to get the president to headline a personal fundraiser for him more than a year before the November election. Obama’s former campaign manager, David Plouffe, has been consulting for Patrick’s 2010 bid since last spring, and Axelrod also has lent his expertise.
“We want to be as helpful as we can to him,” said Axelrod, who worked on the Massachusetts governor’s 2006 campaign.
Losing the governorship in the state on the vanguard of health care reform and the scene of this year’s most shocking political upset – the election of Scott Brown to Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat – could be a narrative-defining result heading into 2011.
The White House – with an eye on 2012 – will do anything to prevent another Bay State bombshell.
PollWatch (VA): WaPo/ABC – McDonnell Lead Fueled by Conservative Surge
Posted by: | CommentsIt’s the dog days of summer – and most average Virginians aren’t paying all that much attention to the nationally significant (to the political chattering class, at least) gubernatorial race underway in the Old Dominion. According to the newest Washington Post/ABC News poll of the race show a majority (51%) are not closely following the race. Less than one in five (17%) claim to be following the contest very closely. Full survey is here.
This lack of interest also reveals itself in the fact that a majority (52%) said they either remained undecided in the race or could change their mind before going to the polls seventy-n
ine days from now.
Essentially, the 47-40 topline lead for McDonnell reflects the Republican’s ability to win over independent voters, remain competitive among moderates and minimize the Democrat’s advantage in the Northern Virginia suburbs. Deeds, who has been criticized by Democratic strategists for his focus on regions outside NoVa, trails the Republican in the downstate, rural regions.
But a closer look reveals something more fundamental might be underway, threatening to alter our understanding of the nation’s political landscape in the Obama era.
Regarding the methodology of the poll, this sample has a 7-pt GOP advantage (34-27) among likely voters, a reversal from a poll conducted last August (36-28 Dem advantage) and a contrast from one conducted in September 05 during the Kaine/Gilgore gubernatorial contest when Republicans had a 3 point advantage (37-34). While the 2008 numbers were certainly an aberration induced by a surging Obama campaign, a double-digit swing towards the Republicans seems questionable, especially considering the fact the two parties each usually represent a third of the respondents in this survey over the past decade. Along those same lines, the percentage of self-identified conservatives in the sample surged 12 points over the past year (from 29 last September to 41 now) while the percentage of moderates dropped correspondingly (dropping from 47 to 37). While some pollsters have been reporting a growing GOP enthusiasm advantage in recent months, it would be a political earthquake if these shifts actually materialize on Election Day.
But if these party ID numbers are accurate, it also means the Obama coalition will be dismissed by conservatives and moderate Democrats as a personality-driven victory that had little to do with support for Democratic policies. A resounding Deeds defeat would be a serious blow (much worse than a Corzine defeat in New Jersey) that would undermine Obama’s ability to implement a progressive agenda.
Race for Richmond – Scary Business
Posted by: | CommentsWhile watching the first gubernatorial debate between Creigh Deeds and Bob McDonnell, I was struck by how both candidates attempted to insert national themes into the discussion. While Deeds the Democrat highlighted McDonnell’s embrace of Bush economic policies, it was the Republican who echoed national GOPer talking points the most frequently.
Today’s WaPo agrees:
Republican Robert F. McDonnell made a bet at his first debate in the Virginia governor’s race Saturday: that turning the contest into a referendum on President Obama’s increasingly contentious national agenda will sway the election. Read More→
