Draw the Lines: Will Washington’s New 10th be Another King County seat?

University of Washington geographer and demographer Dick Morrill observes that the ‘surprising historical accident’ that four incumbent Washington House members reside at the edges of their current districts might dictate that the brand-spanking new Tenth Congressional district be carved out of northeastern King County:

So if we look at the area with the largest population with no incumbent representative to protect, we find it is northeastern King County. This area, with almost 2 million people, has only two representatives within its borders, so no one would be squeezed out. Thus a logical alternative for the 10th district is indeed King County, which has almost enough population for district 7 (McDermott, Seattle), 8 (Reichert, Eastside and south King County), and a new 10th (northeastern King).

This would in turn make the 9th (Smith, Tacoma) mainly a Pierce County district, and put Olympia in the 6th (Dicks, Belfair).

There is one caveat. If Jay Inslee opts to run for the open governor’s chair in 2012, the lack of an incumbent in his First District could provide the mapmakers to freedom to make a more radical redraw that would still protect the remaining incumbents.