The State Houses – What’s At Stake in 2010

Thirty-nine states will be electing a governor during the 2009-2010 election cycle. Of these, eighteen races will not include an incumbent and four incumbents who will be running were not elected to their current position. The recession and huge budget deficits threaten to undercut the power of incumbency for governors running for reelection.

The Current Line-Up


Archive for July, 2010

As expected, Rep. Mary Fallin defeated Tea Party favorite Randy Brogdon in the Oklahoma Republican primary by a 55%-39% margin.

Lt. Gov. Jari Askins’ tight victory over AG Drew Edmondson in the Democratic Primary was the surprise of the day, setting up the second all-female gubernatorial major party matchup of the 2010 cycle (the other being in New Mexico). According to UVA’s Larry Sabato, these are only the third and fourth such matchups in US history.

The other noteworthy aspect came during Fallin’s election night victory speech at the Will Rogers Theater where her comments attacking the Obama Administration and federal government got the loudest, most robust cheers.

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Guber Quick Hits, Tues 7/27/10

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California: Queen Meg has agreed to a series of three gubernatorial debates with Jerry Brown this fall.

Florida: Republican Bill McCollum’s fundraising pace fell short of Democrat Alex Sink’s during the most recent quarter. But it may not even matter if he doesn’t get past the primary, in which he has been outspent by a 4-to-1 margin by billionaire outsider Rick Scott.

Georgia: US Rep. Jack Kingston has endorsed his former congressional colleague Nathan Deal’s guber bid in the GOP primary run-0ff against Karen Handel.

Maryland: Gov. O’Malley’s Celtic rock band, O’Malley’s March will be performing at a DC Irish bar tonight to raise money for the governor’s reelection effort.

Oregon: Republican Chris Dudley has tapped into Oregon’s business community to widen his fundraising advantage over former Gov. John Kitzhaber in their gubernatorial contest.


Pollapalooza Tuesday

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Maryland: Gonzalez Research has new numbers on the O’Malley v Ehrlich rematch which show a tight contest, with the Democratic incumbent holding a very slight (although statistically insignificant) 45-42% edge. O’Malley sports a respectable (especially these days) job approval rating of 48-39%. The pollster points out that for Ehrlich to win in the overwhelmingly Democratic state he needs to get between 25%-30% of Democratic voters. Currently, he wins over just 19%.  (Polling conducted 7/13-21, 807 MD registered voters, MoE +/-3.5%)

Massachusetts: The latest numbers on the Bay State’s three-candidate guber contest comes from the prolific pollsters over at RazzleDazzle Reports.  They show a race unchanged since the last time they checked in with incumbent Democrat Deval Patrick holding a 6 point lead over Republican Charlie Baker and Independent Tim Cahill attracting support in the mid-teens. (Polling conducted 7/22, 500 Likely MA Voters, MoE +/- 4.5%)

Oregon: Chris Dudley maintains a slim lead (47%-44%) over Democratic guber nominee John Kitzhaber, according to the latest numbers from Razzmattazz Reports. (Polling conducted 7/26, 750 Likely OR Voters, MoE +/- 4%)

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Today’s campaign ad of the day comes from embattled Republican Bill McCollum, who uses a Rick Astley “classic” as the soundtrack, warning Floridians not to get “RickRolled” by Rick Scott.

“From 1987 to 1997…before most people had a PC, a cell phone and access to the Internet…the United States was “Rick Rolled” in the largest act of taxpayer theft in history.

Rick Scott’s company defrauded Medicare, and he walked away with $310 million o f your tax dollars.

And now he wants to be your next governor.”

And that’s when the dance music starts..

Categories : 100 ADS, AdMonitor, Florida
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Rory (the younger) goes after Brian Sandoval’s recently-released education proposal in this hard-hitting and ominous ad. The former federal judge is comfortably ahead of the Senator’s Son in all polling. He’s remained cloistered, avoiding real engagement on the campaign trail.

Will this attack ad bring a response from the Republican or will he be content to sit on the sidelines hoping the Silver State senate race continues soaking up all the media’s attention?

Categories : 100 ADS, AdMonitor, Nevada
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Guber Quick Hits, Mon 7/26/10

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Arizona: The Arizona Fraternal Order of Police has officially endorsed Jan Brewer’s GOP guber bid.

Florida: Rumors from the Sunshine State’s turbulent guber campaign trail have former candidate Paula Dockery joining Rick Scott’s ticket as his Light Guv dance partner.

Georgia: Add Roy Barnes to the growing list of Democratic guber wannabes who is avoiding public appearances with President Obama.

Georgia II: The National Rifle Association endorsed former Rep. Nathan Deal in his GOP guber run-off against one of Sarah Palin’s Mama Grizzlies, Karen Handel.

Kansas: Sen. Sam Brownback has raised over $2 million for his gubernatorial campaign.

Minnesota: DFL-endorsed guber wannabe Margaret Anderson Kelliher has reported raising just under $1 million during 2010. She’s got $385K in the bank for the primary contest’s closing days. Both Mark Dayton and Matt Entenza, the two other DFL candidates are self-funding their candidacies and are likely to each pour more than that into advertising and GOTV efforts.

South Carolina: Despite Democratic nominee Vincent Sheheen’s release of ten years worth of tax returns, Republican Nikki Haley wants to know more, charging that Sheheen is “still engaged in a smokescreen and keeping the public in the dark.”

The thing about being in politics for more than four decades is that there’s a whole lot of publicly available video to build campaign attacks ads from.

MegaBucks Whitman has done just that in a new ad slamming Democrat Jerry Brown in which a much younger Brown admits he didn’t have a plan when he ran for office at one point. Since he’s run for everything from mayor to president, it’s not clear which campaign he’s talking about, but it’s certainly not a flattering portrait for a man running on experience as one of his candidacy’s strengths.

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Pollapalooza Saturday

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Arizona: Accidental Governor Jan Brewer continues her demagoguing ways straight to a gubernatorial victory  in her own right. A survey from  Razzmattazz Reports that Brewer has opened nearly a 20-point lead over AG Terry Goddard who has seen his chances of winning the governor’s office slip as the governor’s national profile has risen as she’s become the GOP’s barricade the borders leader. (Polling conducted 7/21, 500 AZ Likely Voters, MoE +/- 4.5%)

Florida: While it’s not exactly a poll of the guber contest, it may have implications if Bud Chiles’ third party bid begins to gain traction. According to RazzleDazzle, 41% of Floridians are more likely to vote for an Independent this fall.

Rhode Island: Now that the Democrats have a presumptive nominee in Frank Caprio after Patrick Lynch abandoned his guber bid, RazzleDazzle Reports has the first polling out and finds that Linc Chafee still wins in each 3-way scenario. (Polling conducted 7/21, 500 RI Likely Voters, MoE +/- 4.5%)

Tennessee: Mason-Dixon has a poll of the GOP gubernatorial primary showing that the contest appears to be Nashville Mayor Bill Haslam’s to lose. He leads his two main rivals, Rep. Zach Wamp and state Sen. Ron Ramsey by double digits. The race (Polling conducted 7/19-7/21, 400 TN GOP Likely Voters, MoE +/- 5%)


Guber Quick Hits, Sat 7/24/10

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Connecticut: Ted Kennedy, Jr is appearing in a campaign commercial supporting Ned Lamont’s gubernatorial bid.  He also received the backing of the Democratic Hispanic Caucus.

Michigan: With the August 3rd primaries rapidly approaching Michigan politicians are making their picks.  Detroit Mayor Dave Bing endorsed House Speaker Andy Dillon on the Democratic side while former Gov. William Milliken backed Rick Snyder in the crowded GOP field. Rep. Pete Hoekstra received the backing of the 90,000-member Teamsters union. Even ‘Joe the Plumber’ has weighed in on the GOP race, picking Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, who has also won the support of Michigan’s political GOP spouses.

Rhode Island: Frank Caprio’s guber campaign is calling in one of the Democratic Party’s biggest headliners, former President Bill Clinton. Caprio’s path to the Democratic nod was cleared recently when AG Patrick Lynch abandoned his bid but he still has a tough three candidate contest ahead against Republican John Robitaille and Independent Linc Chafee.

Tennessee: Guber wannabe Zach Wamp says that if the 2010 and 2012 congressional elections don’t go the right way, states may have to consider seceding from the union over healthcare mandates.

Wisconsin: A week ago, Democrat Tom Barrett was touting his 2010 fundraising haul as the best in state history. Turns out Republican rival Scott Walker is raking in the cash at a slightly faster pace. Walker’s $2.5 million bested Barrett’s $2.4M. The Democrat, who unlike Walker, has no significant primary opposition, can take comfort in the fact he’s got more money stashed in the bank.

Today’s “Ad of the Day” comes from New Mexico where the two women nominated for the open governor’s seat in The Land of Enchantment have proven that it’s not only the men who like their negative campaign ads. Ever since Democrat Diane Denish and Republican Susana Martinez won their party’s nods in early June, they’ve been lobbing attacks back and forth across the state’s television airwaves.

Here’s the latest, in which Dona Ana County DA Susana Martinez links Denish to Santa Fe’s corrupt political culture dominated by outgoing Gov. Bill Richardson whose nomination to become Obama’s Commerce Secretary was derailed by an ongoing FBI investigation into ‘pay-for-play’ politics. Although the investigation ended without the governor being implicated in any criminal activity, Martinez continues to embrace the role of clean government crusader.

Categories : AdMonitor, New Mexico
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