The State Houses – What’s At Stake in 2010

Thirty-nine states will be electing a governor during the 2009-2010 election cycle. Of these, eighteen races will not include an incumbent and four incumbents who will be running were not elected to their current position. The recession and huge budget deficits threaten to undercut the power of incumbency for governors running for reelection.

The Current Line-Up

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Jul
29

Pollapalooza Thursday

By · Jul, 29 2010

Alabama: The gang over at RazzleDazzle Reports takes their first post-run-off look at the Alabama guber contest between Republican Robert Bentley and Democrat Ron Sparks and finds the Bentley with an imposing 20-point lead. (Polling conducted 7/22, 500 AL Likely Voters, MoE +/- 4.5%)

California: Jerry Brown’s lead over Meg Whitman in the Golden State gubernatorial contest has been cut in half since May when he held a 12-point advantage. ¬†Neither candidate is particularly well-liked, according to Public Policy Polling’s¬†latest numbers. From the pollster’s blog:

Brown’s lead is in no way a reflection that he is particularly popular or well liked by California voters. Only 41% have a favorable opinion of him, while 43% view him in a negative light. Republicans dislike him (74%) more than Democrats like him (just 63%) and independents see him unfavorably by a 40/44 margin.

Brown’s numbers certainly continue to look good compared to Whitman’s though. Only 30% of voters have a favorable opinion of her and 50% see her unfavorably. Just like Brown, voters across party lines dislike her (66%) more than voters within her own party (59%) like her. What’s most remarkable in Whitman’s numbers though is how independents feel about her. A whooping 61% say they have an unfavorable opinion to only 21% who see her positively.

Another nugget from the poll: a majority (52%) feel there should be a limit to how much money a candidate can contribute to their own campaign. Californians have a long history of rejecting wealthy self-funders who try to buy Senate seats or the Governor’s mansion. Will eMeg be added to the list? (Polling conducted 7/23-25, 614 CA voters, MoE +/- 3.95%)

Florida: Rick Scott seems on the verge of successfully buying the GOP gubernatorial nod, according to the latest survey from Quinnipiac. He leads the one-time front-runner (and establishment backed) AG Bill McCollum by a 43-32% margin. The lead is similar to the what the Q-Poll measured in early June but both Republicans have seen their unfavorable numbers rocket up (McCollum up from 19% to 34% and Scott up from 12% to 26%, meaning the biggest beneficiary may be Democrat Alex Sink. (Polling conducted 7/22-27, 760 Likely FL GOP Voters, MoE +/- 3.6%)

Nevada: The gang over at Razzmattaz Reports has the shocker of the day. Rory (reid) seems to have gained some traction in his gubernatorial matchup against former federal Judge Brian Sandoval. While the Republican still has a double-digit lead (50-40%), it’s much smaller than the 21-point margin the same outfit found only a month ago. Could Sharron Angle be a drag on the entire GOP ticket in the Silver State? (Polling conducted 7/27/10, 750 Likely NV GOP Voters, MoE +/- 4%)


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