The State Houses – What’s At Stake in 2010

Thirty-nine states will be electing a governor during the 2009-2010 election cycle. Of these, eighteen races will not include an incumbent and four incumbents who will be running were not elected to their current position. The recession and huge budget deficits threaten to undercut the power of incumbency for governors running for reelection.

The Current Line-Up

800px-governors_by_party
May
31

NM: PollWatch (RASM) On Primary Eve, Martinez GOP’s Best Hope?

By · May, 31 2010

Rasmussen has their last pre-primary state of the race snapshot from the Land of Enchantment, where they see Dona Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez pulling into a dead-heat in a potential November match-up against Democratic Lt. Governor Diane Denish.

Denish had held double-digit leads over all five Republican candidates when Rasmussen last looked at these match-ups in late March.  In early spring, it was former GOP Chair Allen Weh who posed the biggest threat to Denish’s quest to replace term-limited Bill Richardson in the Roundhouse. After a barrage of television ads touting her as tough on crime (and a “you betcha!” from Sarah Palin),  Martinez looks to be the strongest Republican in the crowded field.

 

 

New Mexico Gubernatorial Match-ups 

DianeDenish (D) vs. The Republican candidates

 
 

Martinez (R)

  42% (32)

     plus 10

Domenici (R)

30% (35)

minus 5

 

Denish (D)

43% (51)

    minus 8

Denish (D)

47% (52)

minus 5

 

Some other

3% (7)

 

Some other

15% (6)

6%

 

Not sure

12% (10)

 

Not sure

9% (6)

6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weh (R)

39% (35)

plus 5

Arnold-Jones (R)

31% (30)

plus 1

 

Denish (D)

45% (45)

even

Denish (D)

45% (52)

minus 7

 

Some other

9% (7)

 

Some other

11% (6)

 

 

Not sure

7% (13)

 

Not sure

13% (12)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Turner (R)

31% (34)

minus 3

       

Denish (D)

47% (43)

plus 4

       

Some other

11% (7)

 

       

Not sure

11% (16)

 

       


It’s interesting that the GOP-leaning pollster didn’t survey (or at least release numbers) on the Republican primary, which has turned into an episode of “Republicans Behaving Badly,” particularly between presumed front-runners Martinez and former state GOP Chair Allen Weh. The two campaigns have been playing a cutthroat game of GOP politics. It’s gotten so nasty that the state Republican chair recently took sides, criticizing Weh for running “dishonest” attack ads against Martinez.

Weh is no stranger to bare-knuckle political fighting. He was a central figure in the controversial firing of US Attorney David Iglesias back in 2005. Karl Rove is this guy’s Yoda. In fact, Rove’s voice has been used in a pro-Weh robo-call in the closing days of the primary.

Other pollsters (Survey USA and a poll commissioned by local political blogger Joe Monahan) actually did take a look at how the once-crowded GOP primary race may be shaking out. Both found Martinez pulling ahead of Weh (43%-33% in Survey USA’s poll, Monahan’s had her up 41%-30%). The SUSA survey actually showed Martinez surging ahead of Denish by six, leading a potential match-up 49%-43%.

Recognizing she may have a tough fight on her hands come fall, the Denish camp has started running ads, despite having no primary contest. She’s been fundraising at an impressive pace and seems to be gearing up for a close election contest.

A look at the Favorable/Unfavorable trends as measured by Rasmussen shows that Martinez has successfully introduced herself to New Mexican voters.  A relatively unknown figure in late March, she now sports a strong favorable rating of 57%-29%. People  like her once they get to know her. At the same time, Denish has seen her negatives rise. This should be causing Democratic strategists to worry, since Denish hasn’t been in the political firing line in the same way Martinez has.

Candidate  

Total Favorable

Total Unfav

Not Sure

Net Rating

Trend

May

March

May

March

May

March

Martinez

57%

[30]

29%

[29]

15%

[41]

28%

plus 17

Denish

53%

[55]

41%

[35]

6%

[10]

12%

minus 8

Domenici

47%

[44]

42%

[39]

11%

[17]

5%

even

Weh

43%

[33]

46%

[31]

12%

[36]

-3%

plus 2

Arnold-Jones

38%

[38]

33%

[30]

30%

[37]

5%

minus 3

Turner

39%

[33]

35%

[30]

26%

[37]

4%

plus 1

Bookmark and Share
Categories : New Mexico, Polls

Leave a Reply