The State Houses – What’s At Stake in 2010

Thirty-nine states will be electing a governor during the 2009-2010 election cycle. Of these, eighteen races will not include an incumbent and four incumbents who will be running were not elected to their current position. The recession and huge budget deficits threaten to undercut the power of incumbency for governors running for reelection.

The Current Line-Up

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Feb
21

PollWatch (OR): Ras – Dems Hold Edge

By · Feb, 21 2010

The busy beavers over at Rasmussen polled the Oregon gubernatorial race and found a campaign that might present a pick-up opportunity for the Republican Party. The Democrats have two well-known figures in the race – former Governor John Kitzhaber and former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury. Both sport  net positive favorable numbers, although the higher-profile Kitzhaber (who once described the state as “ungovernable”) is clearly more polarizing with more than a quarter of respondents saying they held a very unfavorable view of him.

The GOP field remains relatively unknown, except for former NBA Portland Trail Blazer Chris Dudley, who is making his first step into the political arena (making one conservative pundit dream of a “West Coast Scott Brown”) and Bill Sizemore – well-known as a prolific sponsor of citizen initiatives – carries sky-high negatives for any prospective candidate.

  

Candidate

Very Favorable

Somewhat Favorable

Somewhat Unfavorable

Very Unfavorable

Not sure

Bradbury (D)

20%

26%

18%

13%

23%

Kitzhaber (D)

26%

18%

15%

27%

13%

Alley (R)

9%

21%

21%

8%

41%

Dudley (R)

9%

31%

20%

4%

36%

Lim (R)

6%

25%

19%

9%

41%

Sizemore (R)

6%

16%

16%

44%

17%

 

According to Rasmussen, President Obama remains relatively popular here.  He sports a 53%-47% job approval/disapproval rating.  Ted Kulongoski, the outgoing term-limited Democratic governor’s job approval ratings are a net negative, 40%-56%.

Rasmussen didn’t make public primary matchup results. It’s not clear they were tested. They did all the permutations of the possible general election match-ups. The two Democrats win every single scenario, although at this stage of the race John Lim appears to be the strongest GOP candidate, as he comes within the polls MoE (+/- 4.5%)

 

Kitzhaber vs. the GOP

Bradbury vs. the GOP

Chris Dudley (R)

36%

 

Chris Dudley (R)

36%

John Kitzhaber (D)

42%

 

Bill Bradbury (D)

39%

Some other candidate

7%

 

Some other candidate

7%

Not sure

15%

 

Not sure

17%

         

John Lim (R)

38%

 

John Lim (R)

35%

John Kitzhaber (D)

40%

 

Bill Bradbury (D)

38%

Some other candidate

8%

 

Some other candidate

9%

Not sure

14%

 

Not sure

17%

         

Allen Alley (R)

34%

 

Allen Alley (R)

35%

John Kitzhaber (D)

42%

 

Bill Bradbury (D)

41%

Some other candidate

8%

 

Some other candidate

9%

Not sure

16%

 

Not sure

16%

         

Bill Sizemore (R)

25%

 

Bill Sizemore (R)

23%

John Kitzhaber (D)

48%

 

Bill Bradbury (D)

48%

Some other candidate

15%

 

Some other candidate

16%

Not sure

11%

 

Not sure

13%

 

 

 

Will the Beaver State race become a worry for Democrats? With one of the nation’s highest unemployment rates and the anti-incumbent mood afflicting the nation, the Dems who control everything in this once purple state could be at risk. If the GOP nominates a viable candidate, this could become yet another headache for the Democrats.

 

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Categories : Open Seats, Oregon, Polls

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