The State Houses – What’s At Stake in 2010

Thirty-nine states will be electing a governor during the 2009-2010 election cycle. Of these, eighteen races will not include an incumbent and four incumbents who will be running were not elected to their current position. The recession and huge budget deficits threaten to undercut the power of incumbency for governors running for reelection.

The Current Line-Up

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Sep
15

PollWatch (NJ): PPP – Who Does Daggett Hurt?

By · Sep, 15 2009

Ever since Christopher Daggett qualified for campaign matching funds (and won a podium at the two officially sanctioned debates) one of the central questions in the New Jersey governor’s contest has been which major party candidate would the former EPA administrator would hurt the most.

Numbers released today by Democratic firm Public Policy Polling (pdf) show the independent candidate getting more support from Democrats than Republicans, but with most Daggett supporters saying Republican challenger Christie is their second choice, its unclear whether or not his presence on the ballot actually makes Democrat Jon Corzine’s re-election bid more difficult.

When PPP last surveyed the Garden State race, they neglected to include Daggett as an option. At that point (late July), Christie held a commanding double-digit lead. With Daggett a named option in the current poll, (and following two months of negative headlines for the Republican), Corzine is within nine points, with a surprising 13% supporting the independent. Whether or not these voters stay in Daggett’s camp, opt for their second choice or migrate back toward their partisan home will determine whether Corzine can emerge victorious in November.

NJ 2009 Governor Race (trend from July)
Christie 44 (50)
Corzine 35 (36)
Daggett 13 (n/a)
Undecided 7 (14)

From PPP:

It’s hard to say whether Daggett is hurting Christie or Corzine. He’s getting 15% of the Democratic vote to 7% of the Republican vote, but his supportes say their second choice  is Christie by a 48-32 margin. His supporters seem to be Democratic leaning voters who can’t quite bring themselves to vote for a Republican.

“It’s looking like is’t going to be tougher and tougher for Jon Jorzine to pull this thing out,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Hard attacks on Christie haven’t closed the gap enough and the presence of Daggett in the races is giving disaffected Democrats an outlet to cast a protest vote.”

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