Archive for September, 2009
Michigan GOPers Seek Renaissance
Posted by: | CommentsA Detroit News/Mitchell Research poll of Michigan’s open gubernatorial contest shows Republican Attorney General leading a hypothetical matchup against Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Cherry by thirteen, 45-32%. Michigan’s dismal economic performance over the past decade makes the Great Lakes State a prime pick-up opportunity for Republicans if they can successfully tie the demise of the state’s manufacturing base to Democratic incumbent Jennifer Granholm.
PollWatch (VA): Insider Adv – Democrats Coming Home to Deeds
Posted by: | CommentsPolitico reports on an Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Research poll conducted Wednesday night showing a race that was once moving toward a comfortable Republican win closing to a pure toss-up. While Republican Bob McDonnell maintains a four-point lead, he falls below 50% and unlike in most earlier polls has weaker party support than his Democratic rival Creigh Deeds.
| Virginia Gubernatorial Polling | ||||
| Overall | GOP | Dems | Indies | |
| McDonnell | 47.9 | 79.4 | 7.9 | 54.9 |
| Deeds | 44.2 | 12.1 | 88.7 | 33.3 |
| Other | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Not Sure | 7.3 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 11.2 |
It looks like the negative news reports surrounding McDonnell’s twenty-year old master’s thesis have invigorated a previously non-commital Democratic base around Deeds’ candidacy.
Perhaps there are larger forces driving these partisan numbers? Pollsters have been talking about a Democratic “enthusiasm gap” as the conservative base has been riled up all summer long, tea bagging and shouting across the nation’s television screens. If this poll holds true through election day, might it be an indication of a progressive backlash?
AdMonitor (NJ): Two Sets of Rules
Posted by: | CommentsThe Corzine camp keeps swinging away at Republican Chris Christie’s ethics and driving problems. It may be just me, but using the term “throwing his weight around” may step over the line as an unfair personal attack.
PollWatch (AZ): PPP – The Dems Oasis in the Desert
Posted by: | CommentsDemocratic leaning Public Policy Polling has a first look (pdf) at the yet-to-form Arizona gubernatorial contest and delivers perhaps the brightest news for Democrats they’ve heard in months.
“This is the first poll in months where we’ve found a Democratic challenger leading a Republican incumbent anywhere across the country,” Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Jan Brewer’s one of the least popular Governors anywhere and that’s put Terry Goddard in a strong position.”
PPP tested Democratic Attorney General Terry Goddard (who thanks to the state’s quit-to-run laws, can’t declare his candidacy until January 2010) against Brewer (and Accidental Governor), former Governor Fife Symington (who left office in disgrace a decade ago) and State Treasurer Dean Martin.
Brewer, the only Accidental Governor (the others – NY’s Paterson, Alaska’s Parnell, Kansas’ Parkinson, Illinois’ Quinn & Utah’s Herbert) whose elevation to the top spot marked a shift in partisan power, battled the GOP-controlled state legislature in on the nation’s longest budget battles of the 2010 budgeting season. Brewer’s advocacy for an increased sales tax to help close the state’s budget hole may have been the right position but it wasn’t a strategy designed to win over the anti-tax, small government base of her own party.
The Sixtieth Vote – Deval Dodges a Minefield
Posted by: | CommentsPolitico is reporting Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick will select former Kennedy aide and DNC Chair Paul Kirk as the Bay State’s interim Senator, assuring Democrats a 60 vote majority for the anticipated health care votes over the next few weeks.
Considering the recent fate governor’s facing US Senate appointments (think Paterson’s bumbling that pushed his approval numbers off a cliff or Blago’s indictment on charges of selling Obama’s vacant seat), he seems to have manuevered a potentially tricky path without hurting the Democratic coalition or offending any of the commonwealth’s ambitious powerbrokers.
He managed to shepherd a blatantly political revision of Mass’ election law through a notoriously confrontational legislative branch in a matter of weeks. The fact that no one from the Kennedy clan expressed interest in either the caretaker appointment or running for the balance of the late Senator’s term may have made it easier for Patrick because, even with the selection of a close family friend, the charges of dynasty and nepotism aren’t likely to be made. Perhaps the Kennedy’s witnessed the trouble caused in New York (and the rejection among some Dems over the ‘annointment’ of Caroline as an unelected senator) and realized that by keeping their powder dry at this moment was the best way to keep Teddy’s dream of healthcare reform on track.
Hoeffel Shuffles the Dem Deck in PA
Posted by: | CommentsHoping to lay claim to a geographic and ideological base in the 2010 Democratic gubernatorial primary, former Congresscritter Joe Hoeffel told pa2010.comhe will be a candidate. Following months of speculation as to whether any candidates from Eastern PA (other than unproven political wannabe Tom Knox) would enter the fray to challenge two western frontrunners, there’s been a flurry of activity (Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty is leaning toward tossing his hat in as well).
Hoeffel is positioning himself as the “progressive” in the race.
Hoeffel, fueled by a concern that the party may be tacking right, made his decision after commissioning a poll on the race that his campaign said yielded encouraging results. While no formal announcement has been scheduled, Hoeffel, a former Congressman, is in the process of staffing up for his first statewide campaign since he lost a Senate race to Arlen Specter in 2004.
“I do intend to run,” he told pa2010.com in an exclusive interview on Sunday. “I’m going to move forward aggressively. I’m in the race and ready to ride.”
Considering the high-profile Senate primary fight between party-switcher Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak, embracing the liberal banner could be a politically courageous move. While Keystone Democrats have seen their registration numbers soar over the past two years, many of these new Democrats were enticed to join because they wanted to participate in the Obama/Clinton presidential contest. They are almost unquestionably more moderate or conservative in their ideological views than the Democratic electorate typical of other northeastern states. Pennsylvania also has a long history of moderation. One finds pro-life Democrats in elective office as well as pro-choice Republicans. This is a state that tends to shun ideologues (although Rick Santorum is a notable exception) and reward political pragmatism (witness Specter’s longevity).
Could a “progressive” Hoeffel victory (or even a strong showing in the primary) solidify a leftward shift in this swing state that so often plays a huge role in presidential politics?
Sticks and Stones May Break My Bones, But
Posted by: | CommentsWords (even those two decades old) can really hurt a political career.
With a not-so-insignificant assist to the Washington Post (who said newspapers had become irrelevant in the 21st century?) Virginia GOP gubernatorial nominee Bob McDonnell has learned a painful political lesson that others who fully embrace the fanaticism rampant in this summer’s Tea Party protests would do well to heed. Extremist words can become a political liability.
Some wondered whether or not The Thesis would impact the gubernatorial contestwhen the WaPo first revealed the 20-year-old anti-feminist, gay bashing policy proposals McDonnell wrote to please the theologues at Pat Robertson’s Regents University. Late last week, GOP-leaning pollster Rasmussen reported the race had transformed from a comfortable GOP lead to a pure toss-up. Surprisingly, the DailyKos/Research 2000 poll showed McDonnell’s lead stable indicating Rasmussen might be an outlier. Had nothing really changed?
The latest survey from the Washington Postreinforces Rasmussen’s findings, showing a much tighter race, with McDonnell hanging on to a narrow 51-47% lead among likely voters over Democratic nominee Creigh Deeds. Read More→
PollWatch (VA)- Ras: Virginia A Toss-Up? (UPDATED)
Posted by: | CommentsRasmussen, usually a pollster with a GOP-friendly tilt, provides a surprising survey showing Democrat Creigh Deeds pulling into a statistical dead heat with Republican Bob McDonnell. Deeds trails by two, 48-46%.
If this poll turns out not be an outlier, it marks a significant change in the race, as Deeds trailed in the Rasmussen’s most recent survey (two weeks ago) by nine and in early August by eight.
| Virginia Gubernatorial Polling | |||
| 17-Sep | 1-Sep | 11-Aug | |
| McDonnell | 48 | 51 | 49 |
| Deeds | 46 | 42 | 41 |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Not Sure | 5 | 6 | 7 |
PA-Gov: Doherty 2010 Run Imminent?
Posted by: | CommentsWhile national media attention has focused on the high-profile Democratic Senate primary, there may be as much action in the gubernatorial contest. Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty is in the closing months of his re-election campaign and, according to a pa2010.com exclusive today, gearing up for a “now all-but-certain” campaign for governor.
Doherty, a Democrat who is expected to cruise to a third term as mayor this fall after winning even the GOP nomination as a write-in, has hired a campaign manager, a communications strategist, media consultants, a direct-mail firm and a pollster. He has formed a state political committee, already commissioned a poll of the race, and has been placing calls to and meeting with numerous Democratic leaders and fundraisers across the state. And while an official declaration of candidacy may not come until after he wins reelection in November, it will be mostly a formality at that point. Increasingly, people close to Doherty describe his candidacy as a forgone conclusion.
Even as a politically-unknown factor, his entrance into the race will further shake up a Democratic primary that is shaping up to be more crowded than it was even a few months ago.
The two leading Democrats in the race, Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato and Auditor General Jack Wagner both hail from Western PA, which has left a geographic void in the race. While Philly businessman (and a yet-t0-win political wannabe) Tom Knox has entered the race, political observers have anticipated the entry of a candidate with a proven record of winning elections from Eastern Pennsylvania. While former Congressman Joe Hoeffel has expressed interest in running as a progressive alternate, the entry of a politician with proven cross-over appeal could be the Democrats’ key to winning the 2010 Keystone State contest.
