Archive for June, 2009
Gavin Tweeting Past $1 Million
Posted by: | CommentsAs end of month filing deadlines rapidly approach, a tweet from California Democratic candidate Gavin Newsom announces:
Last 48 hours: we passed 4000 total online donors and have reached $1 million raised online for the campaign! Thank you.
McDonnell & the Memory Hole
Posted by: | CommentsSuccessful political candidates are often those who articulate a clear vision for the future. Those who create a common sense of purpose can convince others to join their cause. Sometimes, these campaigns urge us to turn the page on the past in order to move forward as a society. These were hallmarks of the Obama campaign.
Not so much Virginia GOP nominee Bob McDonnell.
Throughout Campaign 2008, the one area of bipartisan agreement might have been the desire to forget the Bush years, as our candidates up and down the ballot sought to flush everything BushCheney into our collective memory hole.
Bob McDonnell, however, has fond memories of Bush years, especially the economic policy:
So, there’s Bob McDonnell defending tax cuts combined with no fiscal restraints on the spending side, arguing it led to a decade of unprecedented growth. If by unprecedented he means the slowest job expansion decade in the post war era, then I guess he’s right.
Tapping into frustration over taxes is a tried and true GOP political tactic. It remains to be seen whether Virginians’ memory hole is so deep they are able to forget Republicans’ lack of fiscal restraint during the Bush/Hastert years.
Presidential Futures – the Blue Team
Posted by: | CommentsFirst, it was the Republican list. Now, Josh Goodman provides the Democratic gubernatorial roster of potential White House residents.
PollWatch: McCollum Leads Sink
Posted by: | CommentsIn a race sure to be one of the most polled in the nation, Rasmussen releases their most recent findings on the Florida Governor’s race between Attorney General Bill McCollum and state CFO Alex Sink. The Republican has slightly stronger net favorable ratings and leads the Democrat by eight points.
| Overall | Men | Independents | |
| McCollum | 42% | 51% | 38% |
| Sink | 34% | 36% | 22% |
| Undecided | 18% | ||
| Favorable | Unfavorable | No Opinion | |
| McCollum | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| Sink | 50% | 32% | 19% |
The Pollster.com aggregate trendline shows an evenly divided contest:
Presidential Futures
Posted by: | CommentsPollWatch: Oregon’s True Blue Colors
Posted by: | CommentsOregon was once one of the most competitive swing states in the nation. State and national campaigns typically began as true toss-ups and both national parties viewed the state’s electoral votes as potentially theirs. Recently, however the environmentally-conscious state has planted itself firmly into the Democratic column.
Research 2000 has released a new poll conducted for Daily Kos showing the Democrats enter the open seat gubernatorial race in a commanding position. Despite the fact term-limited Democrat Ted Kulongoski can’t run again, the field remains relatively empty, as the potential big names have hesitated to jump into the race. R2000 tested former governor John Kitzhaber (who has mentioned getting back into the political arena) and Rep. Peter DeFazio (the progressive frequently mentioned as a potential statewide candidate) against former senator Gordon Smith (recently ousted by Jef Merkley) and Rep. Greg Walden.
| Kitzhaber | 46% | DeFazio | 47% |
| Smith | 37% | Smith | 37% |
| Kitzhaber | 44% | DeFazio | 45% |
| Walden | 38% | Walden | 37% |
There is one Democrat currently in the race, former state speaker Bill Bradbury. His leads over the two well-known Republicans tested are not as strong:
| Bradbury | 42% | Bradbury | 40% |
| Smith | 38% | Walden | 39% |
Sanford Fallout
Posted by: | CommentsChris Cillizza tallies the winners and losers from last week’s South Carolina political shocker. His take on how this affects the contest to replace Sanford in 2010:
WINNER:
Andre Bauer: South Carolina’s lieutenant governor is now in a win-win situation. If Sanford stays in office, then Bauer’s willingness to raise questions about where the governor was during his five day absence makes him a perfect foil for the embattled chief executive. If Sanford resigns, Bauer steps into the office — giving him a major leg up in the 2010 Republican gubernatorial primary.
LOSER:
Nikki Haley: The South Carolina state legislator’s candidacy for governor in 2010 was almost entirely hinged on being seen as the heir to Sanford’s outsider appeal. As late as Tuesday evening, Haley was prominently touting Sanford’s kind words about her candidacy on her campaign Web site. (A Sanford picture was removed by Wednesday morning.) Haley tried to put some distance between herself and Sanford on Wednesday with her statement on the affair (“While Governor Sanford and I have long shared a political philosophy, today’s revelations go well beyond politics,” she said) but it will be very hard for her to find running room in a Republican primary already crowded with well known candidates.
With a majority of South Carolinians wanting Sanford to resign, its astounding how quickly a GOP presidential contender can transform into a political pariah these days.
Land Shocks MI Politicos
Posted by: | CommentsShe had been viewed as the GOP 2010 frontrunner. Many thought she would have been a formidable general election gubernatorial candidate in Michigan’s contest to replace term-limited Democrat Jennifer Granholm. So when Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land announced her decision to withdraw from a race she had yet to join, she stunned political strategists. With Michigan economic struggles worse than the rest of the nation, the challenges confronting Michigan’s next governor are daunting. Could she be one of those rare politicians who understands their own limitations? The Detroit Free Press’ Ron Dzwonkowski writes:
Land had no real baggage as a candidate. But she may have come up a little short on what former president George H.W. Bush once described as “the vision thing.”
After the wrenching economic transition that Michigan is going through, the next governor needs to articulate a broad view of what this state can become with a much smaller automotive and manufacturing base, and demonstrate the leadership to get us there. Land has been more of a hands-on doer, which works well in the Secretary of State’s office but can be a liability in a governor. The executive’s role is more about laying out broad policy goals and finding the right people to achieve them.
Empire State Update
Posted by: | CommentsAdvisor says former Rep. Rick Lazio “fully intends” to run for governor.
One has to admire his bravado. Considering the GOP’s endangered species status in New York, any Republican eyeing a statewide race is looking at a steep challenge. But Lazio’s previous performance under the bright lights (Hillary Clinton’s easier-than-anticipated victory in the 2000 Senate race) hasn’t dissuaded him from considering a return engagement.
Despite Democratic dominance in the state, could Gov David Paterson’s dismal poll numbers provide Republicans a chance to recapture the Governor’s Mansion? Quinnipiac has another set out showing NY voters disapprove of the incumbent’s performance by 61-28 and trails AG Andrew Cuomo 57-20 in a potential Democratic primary matchup.
In a general election matchup, Cuomo leads the potential Republican Rudy Giuliani (who is not a candidate at this point), 51-39, while Paterson is trounced by the former NY mayor, 52-34.
I’ve written previously that Paterson might be able to begin a rehabilitation by becoming the leader who resolved the state Senate’s stalemate. The Republicans challengers would prefer voters view them as the politicians who can end the gridlock. Hoping to seize the leadership mantle, both Giuliani and Lazio are calling for a state constitutional convention to restructure state government. If Paterson doesn’t resolve this quickly, the Republicans’ 2010 odds improve.
