The State Houses – What’s At Stake in 2010

Thirty-nine states will be electing a governor during the 2009-2010 election cycle. Of these, eighteen races will not include an incumbent and four incumbents who will be running were not elected to their current position. The recession and huge budget deficits threaten to undercut the power of incumbency for governors running for reelection.

The Current Line-Up

800px-governors_by_party

Archive for June, 2009

Jun
30

Gavin Tweeting Past $1 Million

Posted by: | Comments (0)

As end of month filing deadlines rapidly approach, a tweet from California Democratic candidate Gavin Newsom announces:

Last 48 hours: we passed 4000 total online donors and have reached $1 million raised online for the campaign! Thank you.

Categories : California
Comments (0)
Jun
30

McDonnell & the Memory Hole

Posted by: | Comments (0)

Successful political candidates are often those who articulate a clear vision for the future. Those who create a common sense of purpose can convince others to join their cause. Sometimes, these campaigns urge us to turn the page on the past in order to move forward as a society. These were hallmarks of the Obama campaign.

Not so much Virginia GOP nominee Bob McDonnell.

Throughout Campaign 2008, the one area of bipartisan agreement might have been the desire to forget the Bush years, as our candidates up and down the ballot sought to flush everything BushCheney into our collective memory hole.

Bob McDonnell, however, has fond memories of Bush years, especially the economic policy:

So, there’s Bob McDonnell defending tax cuts combined with no fiscal restraints on the spending side, arguing it led to a decade of unprecedented growth. If by unprecedented he means the slowest job expansion decade in the post war era, then I guess he’s right.

Tapping into frustration over taxes is a tried and true GOP political tactic. It remains to be seen whether Virginians’ memory hole is so deep they are able to forget Republicans’ lack of fiscal restraint during the Bush/Hastert years.

Categories : Economy, Open Seats, Virginia
Comments (0)

First, it was the Republican list. Now, Josh Goodman provides the Democratic gubernatorial roster of potential White House residents.

Categories : Uncategorized
Comments (0)
Jun
29

PollWatch: McCollum Leads Sink

Posted by: | Comments (0)

In a race sure to be one of the most polled in the nation, Rasmussen releases their most recent findings on the Florida Governor’s race between Attorney General Bill McCollum and state CFO Alex Sink. The Republican has slightly stronger net favorable ratings and leads the Democrat by eight points.

  Overall Men Independents
McCollum 42% 51% 38%
Sink 34% 36% 22%
Undecided 18%    
  Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion
McCollum 53% 26% 21%
Sink 50% 32% 19%

The Pollster.com aggregate trendline shows an evenly divided contest:

Categories : Florida, Open Seats, Polls
Comments (0)

Rumors are rampant in the Badger State that two-term incumbent Democrat Jim Doyle is preparing to become the next director of the Peace Corps. The governor is denying a move to DC is imminent, but with his  falling poll numbers (pdf) a reelection campaign has got to be looking less and less enticing. This is one of those states where the Democrats’ chances of retaining the seat would improve if he does step aside, as Lt. Governor Barbara Lawton appears stronger in early polling.

Comments (0)
Jun
29

Presidential Futures

Posted by: | Comments (0)

Just for fun.

Categories : 2012 Sweepstakes
Comments (0)

Oregon was once one of the most competitive swing states in the nation. State and national campaigns typically began as true toss-ups and both national parties viewed the state’s electoral votes as potentially theirs. Recently, however the environmentally-conscious state has planted itself firmly into the Democratic column.

Research 2000 has released a new poll conducted for Daily Kos showing the Democrats enter the open seat gubernatorial race in a commanding position. Despite the fact term-limited Democrat Ted Kulongoski can’t run again, the field remains relatively empty, as the potential big names have hesitated to jump into the race. R2000 tested former governor John Kitzhaber (who has mentioned getting back into the political arena) and Rep. Peter DeFazio (the progressive frequently mentioned as a potential statewide candidate) against former senator Gordon Smith (recently ousted by Jef Merkley) and Rep. Greg Walden.

Kitzhaber 46% DeFazio 47%
Smith 37% Smith 37%
       
Kitzhaber 44% DeFazio 45%
Walden 38% Walden 37%

There is one Democrat currently in the race, former state speaker Bill Bradbury. His leads over the two well-known Republicans tested are not as strong:

Bradbury 42% Bradbury 40%
Smith 38% Walden 39%
Categories : Open Seats, Oregon, Polls
Comments (0)
Jun
29

Sanford Fallout

Posted by: | Comments (0)

Chris Cillizza tallies the winners and losers from last week’s South Carolina political shocker. His take on how this affects the contest to replace Sanford in 2010:

WINNER:

Andre Bauer: South Carolina’s lieutenant governor is now in a win-win situation. If Sanford stays in office, then Bauer’s willingness to raise questions about where the governor was during his five day absence makes him a perfect foil for the embattled chief executive. If Sanford resigns, Bauer steps into the office — giving him a major leg up in the 2010 Republican gubernatorial primary. 

LOSER:

Nikki Haley: The South Carolina state legislator’s candidacy for governor in 2010 was almost entirely hinged on being seen as the heir to Sanford’s outsider appeal. As late as Tuesday evening, Haley was prominently touting Sanford’s kind words about her candidacy on her campaign Web site. (A Sanford picture was removed by Wednesday morning.) Haley tried to put some distance between herself and Sanford on Wednesday with her statement on the affair (“While Governor Sanford and I have long shared a political philosophy, today’s revelations go well beyond politics,” she said) but it will be very hard for her to find running room in a Republican primary already crowded with well known candidates.

With a majority of South Carolinians wanting Sanford to resign, its astounding how quickly a GOP presidential contender can transform into a political pariah these days.

Comments (0)
Jun
27

Land Shocks MI Politicos

Posted by: | Comments (0)

She had been viewed as the GOP 2010 frontrunner. Many thought she would have been a formidable general election gubernatorial candidate in Michigan’s contest to replace term-limited Democrat Jennifer Granholm. So when Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land announced her decision to withdraw from a race she had yet to join, she stunned political strategists.  With Michigan economic struggles worse than the rest of the nation, the challenges confronting Michigan’s next governor are daunting. Could she be one of those rare politicians who understands their own limitations? The Detroit Free Press’ Ron Dzwonkowski writes:

Land had no real baggage as a candidate. But she may have come up a little short on what former president George H.W. Bush once described as “the vision thing.”

After the wrenching economic transition that Michigan is going through, the next governor needs to articulate a broad view of what this state can become with a much smaller automotive and manufacturing base, and demonstrate the leadership to get us there. Land has been more of a hands-on doer, which works well in the Secretary of State’s office but can be a liability in a governor. The executive’s role is more about laying out broad policy goals and finding the right people to achieve them.

Categories : Michigan, Open Seats
Comments (0)
Jun
27

Empire State Update

Posted by: | Comments (0)

Advisor says former Rep. Rick Lazio “fully intends” to run for governor.

One has to admire his bravado. Considering the GOP’s endangered species status in New York, any Republican eyeing a statewide race is looking at a steep challenge. But Lazio’s previous performance under the bright lights (Hillary Clinton’s easier-than-anticipated victory in the 2000 Senate race) hasn’t dissuaded him from considering a return engagement.

Despite Democratic dominance in the state, could Gov David Paterson’s dismal poll numbers provide Republicans a chance to recapture the Governor’s Mansion?  Quinnipiac has another set out showing NY voters disapprove of the incumbent’s performance by 61-28 and trails AG Andrew Cuomo 57-20 in a potential Democratic primary matchup.

In a general election matchup, Cuomo leads the potential Republican Rudy Giuliani (who is not a candidate at this point), 51-39, while Paterson is trounced by the former NY mayor, 52-34.

I’ve written previously that Paterson might be able to begin a rehabilitation by becoming the leader who resolved the state Senate’s stalemate. The Republicans challengers would prefer voters view them as the politicians who can end the gridlock. Hoping to seize the leadership mantle, both Giuliani and Lazio are calling for a state constitutional convention to restructure state government. If Paterson doesn’t resolve this quickly, the Republicans’ 2010 odds improve.